Biden’s Presidential Odds Drift Yet His Popularity Remains Strong
The UK’s SKY News are calling it the most important speech of his presidency, “a potentially defining moment”. American news networks are not so forthright. But when Joe Biden addressed the American nation from the East Room of the White House on Monday, his stand-firm policy on the mass US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan did see rife bookmaker speculation about his tenure in office.
President Joe Biden signed off on a September 20 withdrawal from Afghanistan. The question now is, when will he sign-off from his presidential duties? ©GettyIMages
Odds of 2/5 were available about Biden completing a full-term presidency last week. But, as scenes of chaos from Kabul’s airport hit TV screens, that price began to drift dramatically. The President is now 4/7 to remain in office until January 20, 2025 when a full-term would be complete.
You can place wagers on exactly when Joe Biden will cease to be US President. The odds available are: 9/1 on a 2021 departure, 23/5 a 2022 exit, 39/5 a 2023 cessation of power, 29/5 about him leaving in 2024 and a 2025 (full term) or later is 11/5.
A One Term President?
Joe Biden is the oldest person to assume the US presidency. Remarkably, at 78, he is also older than the oldest President at the end of their term in office. That distinction belongs to Ronald Regan who was 77 when he left the White House.
Yet, in the very first news conference of his presidency, President Biden confirmed he plans to run for reelection in 2024. “That is my expectation,” he said when asked about running for a second term. “I’m a great respecter of fate. I’ve never been able to plan four-and-a-half or three-and-a-half years ahead for certain.”
However, during his 2020 race to the White House many of Biden’s campaign managers indicated he did not intend to stand for re-election on November 5, 2024. At that point in time, he will be 82 years of age.
If you believe Biden will run for reelection, BetVictor would be the place to support your opinion. They are offering the industry top-price of 9/4 about him being the Democratic candidate at the next election.
At 7/4, vice President Kamala Harris is the more fancied contender. Third best in BetVictor’s betting, at 20/1, is 39-year-old Pete Buttigieg. The secretary of transportation in the Biden administration, he is the first openly gay person to be confirmed to a US cabinet position. Like Harris he made an unsuccessful bid for Democratic nomination in 2020.
Who Will Lead the Republicans?
Whoever the Democratic candidate will be at the next election, the question of who will represent the Republican’s is equally enthralling. At the current prices Donald Trump is the favorite to lead his party into battle for a third time.
Ironically, he too will be 78 when voting in the next election begins. But Trump’s hunger for power is insatiable and William Hill rate his chance at just 5/2. Their betting list sees 42-year-old Florida governor Ron DeSantis trading as the second favorite at 5/1.
DeSantis is followed by Nikki Haley. The former Governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the United Nations is 6/1.
Is There Value in The Current Markets?
Leaving aside exactly who will lead the respective political parties at the next election, the odds currently on offer about the winning party at the next election reads: 4/6 Democrats, 6/5 Republicans and 33/1 Independent.
Many will ask if there is any value in these prices? If we could see into the future and predict a domestic or global crisis we would know. The current Afghan withdrawal would seemingly have the potential to damage Biden and the Democrats re-election hopes.
The president himself described it as “messy” on Monday. However, polls conducted in April 2021 showed 90 percent of Democrat voters supported Biden’s plans to remove US troops from the country by September 11, the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks that ignited the conflict.
As distressing as the current scenes from Kabul’s Hamid Karzai International Airport are, it is unlikely they will cause a big collapse in Biden’s popularity. In fact, after 200 days in power, analysis have expressed surprise in the President’s continuing popularity.
A recent survey conducted by respected opinion poll FiveThirtyEight, which focuses on politics and economics, indicates Biden is almost as popular today as when he was voted into office. Their figures show Joe Biden now has a 50 percent approval rating as opposed to 43.8 percent disapproval.
By contrast, at this point of their presidency, Donald Trump’s popularity had fallen by ten percentage points and Barack Obama’s was around 15 percentage points down.
